Living in the shadow of the corona virus

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Way to miss the point, kids.
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tallyho
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The only point is get the vaccine
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Got my second Pfizer shot this morning, felt it a little during the 15 minute observation

But no problems
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tallyho
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Great news!
Got about 8 weeks for my second.

Stay safe everyone
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One interesting aspect that I learned today was that the vaccine does not kick in until 14 days after you are vaccinated, so until that 14 day period is over, social distancing and mask wearing is still of vital importance in terms of avoiding a COVID infection.
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Mr. X wrote:
2 years ago
tallyho wrote:
2 years ago
I was basing it on a 96-97% survival rate, 3-4 dying in a hundred roughly 1 in 30 if you get it(as in the comparator for if you gef the vaccine)
BUT its almost irrelevant, if we take your numbers it's 1 in 50 which is still enormously worse than 1 in 100,000 which was my whole point.
True. I still that number is still over reaction but the 8/1 mil is absurd.
You absolutely cannot use numbers in that way - it does not represent the truth.

For someone under 40, the chances of dying from SARS-Cov-2 is roughly 0.0004% (worst case) - if you get it.

For someone over 80 those chances are about 0.02%, however if an 80 year old develops the immune syndrome (Covid-19) then their chance of dying is then 25% (factored into 0.02%, but demonstrates how serious hospitalisation from Covid is at that age).

As for blood clots - the risk is relative, there's a 0.0002% of them from the AZ vaccine.

You'll notice that's 50% less than dying of Sars-Cov-2 as a person under 40 (with rounded up figures) - but the same order of magnitude.....

.

All a moot point however. Mr X makes the entirely valid point that we'll all be back in work houses soon or begging on the streets.

Thankfully the M2 money supply still hasn't hit the economy yet, quite an unprecedented freeze on capital has happened for more than a year - it will however as borrowing does not continue forever without consequences.

When that particular avalance happens - inflation, lots of it.
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I found this out there...
Table :(Total persons both sexes deceased/Total persons both sexes infected) according to age.
P(10-19) = 0,002 : 0,2%
P(20-29)=0,002 : 0,2%
P(30-39)=0,002 : 0,2%
P(40-49)=0,004 : 0,4%
P(50-59)=0,013 : 1,3%
P(60-69)=0,036 : 3,6%
P(70-79)=0,08 : 8%
P( >80 )= 0,148 : 14,8%

The overall mortality rate is 2.3%. Men (2.8%) and in women (1.7%),
Looking at the data of "The new York times" (4 days ago) In the United States there are 31,900,000 cases and 569,000 deaths, which gives a 1.78%, but this number will be higher because there are people who are hospitalized ... In Argentina 2,770,000 were infected and 60,083 died, that is 2.17%.
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argento wrote:
2 years ago
I found this out there...
Table :(Total persons both sexes deceased/Total persons both sexes infected) according to age.
P(10-19) = 0,002 : 0,2%
P(20-29)=0,002 : 0,2%
P(30-39)=0,002 : 0,2%
P(40-49)=0,004 : 0,4%
P(50-59)=0,013 : 1,3%
P(60-69)=0,036 : 3,6%
P(70-79)=0,08 : 8%
P( >80 )= 0,148 : 14,8%

The overall mortality rate is 2.3%. Men (2.8%) and in women (1.7%),
Looking at the data of "The new York times" (4 days ago) In the United States there are 31,900,000 cases and 569,000 deaths, which gives a 1.78%, but this number will be higher because there are people who are hospitalized ... In Argentina 2,770,000 were infected and 60,083 died, that is 2.17%.
The official denominator, the recorded infection rate, is demonstrably miniscule when compared to the rate and abundance of SARS-Cov-2 spreading in communities.

Averaging multiple academic studies, puts it at rougly a 1 to 100 detection vs genuine infection rate - in the best case (least cases).

*Only works for developed nations with robust health infrastructure, and decent testing (e.g India has a 1 to 1,000+ detection vs genuine infection rate).

The denominator could be substantially larger - but the 1:100 figure gives a statistically and academically rigourous base from which to work.
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keep a close eye on India and the south american countries....new info coming in that is pretty terrifying
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Third world is always going to be understated both in cases and deaths.
315,000 daily cases recorded in India. Staggering.
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Mr. X wrote:
2 years ago
First off its not a 1 in 30 chance of death from Covid. No idea where that comes from. Survival rate is over 98%.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothec ... bf3ad46159
Yes if you're in your 80s the odds go up.
You know that 1/30 is like... a 97ish percentile right? Maybe you could say a 2 percentile differential if you wanted to round down to 96... I don't see that the distinction you made is all that imperative? 1 in 30 people dying or 2% is too much when you're talking about the infection rates. EVEN if it's only the elderly and children, if that death rate maintains, you start to wind up with OTHER tangible problems... like hiccups in body disposal which can result in people dying of OTHER diseases.
As for the blood clot thing, its like 8 cases vs millions of shots. Statistically irrelevant. Its shocking with drugs not going through a formal FDA process that its ONLY 8 or so cases. Kind of says something about the uselessness of the FDA.
I agree with you wholeheartedly. All bothering anybody with these accounts of blood clots seems to have done is ensure more people die of Covid until those vaccines start going again (if they aren't already? I get news a little slower way the fuck out here in the boonies... not a whiff of Vaccine out here for me as of yet :( ) It's a pretty good example of America's culture of fear getting in the way of solving a problem... and I feel this one affects everyone equally here, as the people who believe in the pandemic want to be immunized... and the people who don't believe in the pandemic want things to go back to normal... and all this does is hold up everyone.
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Femina wrote:
2 years ago
I agree with you wholeheartedly. All bothering anybody with these accounts of blood clots seems to have done is ensure more people die of Covid until those vaccines start going again (if they aren't already? I get news a little slower way the fuck out here in the boonies... not a whiff of Vaccine out here for me as of yet :( ) It's a pretty good example of America's culture of fear getting in the way of solving a problem... and I feel this one affects everyone equally here, as the people who believe in the pandemic want to be immunized... and the people who don't believe in the pandemic want things to go back to normal... and all this does is hold up everyone.
The thing is, below a certain age, the statistical probability of dying from covid is almost as low as the blood clot. Its fear that caused all this economic damage. And getting a vaccine is already showing its not fool proof. We did not need to hyper over react and shut the whole economy down.
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Mr. X wrote:
2 years ago
Femina wrote:
2 years ago
I agree with you wholeheartedly. All bothering anybody with these accounts of blood clots seems to have done is ensure more people die of Covid until those vaccines start going again (if they aren't already? I get news a little slower way the fuck out here in the boonies... not a whiff of Vaccine out here for me as of yet :( ) It's a pretty good example of America's culture of fear getting in the way of solving a problem... and I feel this one affects everyone equally here, as the people who believe in the pandemic want to be immunized... and the people who don't believe in the pandemic want things to go back to normal... and all this does is hold up everyone.
The thing is, below a certain age, the statistical probability of dying from covid is almost as low as the blood clot. Its fear that caused all this economic damage. And getting a vaccine is already showing its not fool proof. We did not need to hyper over react and shut the whole economy down.
:coffee:

Let's just agree that calling off the vaccine over an insanely small amount of blood clots is slowing things down for everyone.
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tallyho wrote:
2 years ago
Third world is always going to be understated both in cases and deaths.
315,000 daily cases recorded in India. Staggering.
The population of India is around 1366 million! With a total of 15.9 million infected and 185000 deaths. This gives a rate of 1.16% which is lower than the overall Covid mortality rate of 2.3%.
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tallyho
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You seriously think those figures are accurate when you have huge swathes of the country without sanitation and electricity as a norm? They are bound to be understated especially in the rural areas. Bound to be lots of deaths that aren't even diagnosed. As terrible and tragic as that 315,000 figure is, it's not the real figure.
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tallyho wrote:
2 years ago
You seriously think those figures are accurate when you have huge swathes of the country without sanitation and electricity as a norm? They are bound to be understated especially in the rural areas. Bound to be lots of deaths that aren't even diagnosed. As terrible and tragic as that 315,000 figure is, it's not the real figure.
India should not be underestimated. The number is gigantic but it is due to the huge population. I read a note that this increase of contagions is due to numerous religious rallies, attended by millions.
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Got my second shot. Day 2 Was fine, until it wasn't, then it sucked. Like all of the flu hit me at once. Day 3 was great compared to those 10 hours.
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2nd day after second shot.

no problems
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^^^ Glad to hear it. :thumbup:



This article in the NYT backs up what was said earlier about the India cases

As Covid-19 Devastates India, Deaths Go Undercounted
https://nyti.ms/32KavhO

I wish to god it didn't.

Stay safe everyone
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Another nation that seems to be having trouble is Canada. Several of the companies I work with are out of Ontario and they are way behind in getting people the vaccine
Bert

The death rate from covid in the United States is nearly triple that of Canada. Half of Republican men are refusing the vaccine. There's no need to look outside the United States to find bad news regarding the pandemic.
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Let's not bring this up again- perhaps you can give us an update of the situation in Canada Bert?
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Appalling pictures of Indian hospitals on the BBC news. 1 million new cases in 3 days. No oxygen supplies casualty a sea of people where relatives have brought casualties for treatment and its pretty much shoulder to shoulder in there, very few of the relatives will avoid catching it. It's just heartbreaking to see.
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tallyho wrote:
2 years ago
Appalling pictures of Indian hospitals on the BBC news. 1 million new cases in 3 days. No oxygen supplies casualty a sea of people where relatives have brought casualties for treatment and its pretty much shoulder to shoulder in there, very few of the relatives will avoid catching it. It's just heartbreaking to see.
Yes. But are these people not wearing masks? Did they not close businesses? In other words is this caused by "virus gonna virus" or was this caused by "deniers"? Is there any empirical evidence that some forced masked wearing or business shut downs or forced isolation would have in any way had a meaningful effect on these numbers? Was this merely going to happen anyway? And why NOW after the world shut down for over a year and complied with mandate and travel restrictions.

Its one thing for someone to get sick. Its another to try and cure it with a gun shot wound.

None of this is the outcome of deniers or non-compliance or not believing in vaccines. This happened AFTER compliance with mask and isolation.

https://www.bing.com/search?form=MOZSBR ... id+numbers


Check the graph. Note that the number go steadily UP since march of last year, NOT DOWN. You see NO DIP in cumulative numbers during higher and higher mask usage and mask compliance. The numbers SHOULD have gone DOWN. They did not. This is also a period of MORE business shut downs and MORE isolation.


This is why SOME of us are skeptical of forced mask mandates and forced isolation and forced closures. We're NOT seeing a strong correlation. So don't call people DENIERS (mean that in general). Skepticism is NOT DENIAL. Not buying into ludicrous claims is NOT DENIAL. Being actually concerned about the economic damage caused by bad ideas and policies is NOT DENIAL.
Bert

tallyho wrote:
2 years ago
...perhaps you can give us an update of the situation in Canada Bert?
Sure. Third wave is being felt across the country with rising infections and increasing numbers of variants. Our vaccine progress is well behind Britain and the U.S. Canada doesn't have manufacturing capability at the moment, although facilities are being constructed. The U.S. recently "lent" us 1.5 million AstraZeneca vaccines. Last night the NYT reported that the American manufacturing facility had to destroy 10 to 15 million doses due to contamination and suspected contamination. AstraZeneca says Canada is responsible for verifying the safety of the doses that were sent to us. The Biden administration claims it just found out about this yesterday.

Alberta leads the nation in infection rates. Ontario and Saskatchewan aren't far behind. All three are led by conservative provincial governments. I'm 56 and may get a first jab in the first week of May. B.C. has taken the step of extending the time between jabs to four months in order to use our limited supply of vaccine to get the most number of people partially protected.

I've been waiting for a year to start a new business. The government assistance program didn't apply to me because my business hadn't opened yet, but I'm still accruing monthly expenses and I can't operate. Bad timing.
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I am sorry to hear about your situation Bert, I hope you are able to overcome this big fork in the road for you and your country is able to acquire more of the COVID vaccine so more folks are able to get vaccinated. Stay safe and healthy.
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Two weeks ago, I tested positive and I quarantined for 10 days. Most of my symptoms are gone. No more body aches. No more fever. I can smell again. I still have a cough and some sinus irritation. I'm told I'll have those for a while but I'm no longer contagious.

I received my first shot about a week before testing positive. A friend told me it may have kept me out of the hospital. I'm getting the second shot next Sunday.

To me, it was like the flu or a really bad cold, but I know plenty of other people who were not so lucky. Some ended up in the hospital. Some are no longer with us. Because of my age and weight, I thought it would have been a lot worse for me than it was. A woman I work with got it. She also has asthma and was out of work for three months or so. She's just getting back to work now.

While I've always tried to be as careful as possible, given what I do for work, I'm amazed I didn't get it earlier. I guess you can only walk between the raindrops for so long.
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Bert, in my country the news is very bad, only 10% of the population was vaccinated, the hospitals are saturated and we started the autumn and there is a lack of vaccines. But the worst thing is that the politicians vaccinated themselves, when they should not have done it. Although it may seem strange to you, the "Procuración del Tesoro de la Nación" Carlos Zanini was the one who falsified an affidavit to get vaccinated. The incident was called VIP vaccinator.
. The economy is a disaster last year they closed 8 months and closed many businesses. The state gave away money with monetary emission. In April we had an inflation of 4.8%.
Procuración del Tesoro de la Nación= Attorney of the Nation.
I leave you the link
https://www.infobae.com/politica/2021/0 ... -de-salud/
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argento wrote:
2 years ago
Bert, in my country the news is very bad, only 10% of the population was vaccinated, the hospitals are saturated and we started the autumn and there is a lack of vaccines. But the worst thing is that the politicians vaccinated themselves, when they should not have done it. Although it may seem strange to you, the "Procuración del Tesoro de la Nación" Carlos Zanini was the one who falsified an affidavit to get vaccinated. The incident was called VIP vaccinator.
. The economy is a disaster last year they closed 8 months and closed many businesses. The state gave away money with monetary emission. In April we had an inflation of 4.8%.
Procuración del Tesoro de la Nación= Attorney of the Nation.
I leave you the link
https://www.infobae.com/politica/2021/0 ... -de-salud/
The politicians jumped the line here too,every member of congress got their shots in the first wave
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argento wrote:
2 years ago
Bert, in my country the news is very bad, only 10% of the population was vaccinated, the hospitals are saturated and we started the autumn and there is a lack of vaccines. But the worst thing is that the politicians vaccinated themselves, when they should not have done it. Although it may seem strange to you, the "Procuración del Tesoro de la Nación" Carlos Zanini was the one who falsified an affidavit to get vaccinated. The incident was called VIP vaccinator.
. The economy is a disaster last year they closed 8 months and closed many businesses. The state gave away money with monetary emission. In April we had an inflation of 4.8%.
Procuración del Tesoro de la Nación= Attorney of the Nation.
I leave you the link
https://www.infobae.com/politica/2021/0 ... -de-salud/
The politicians jumped the line here too,every member of congress got their shots in the first wave
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Glad to hear you have recovered IMSancho or are recovering.
They say the vaccine rakes 8-10 days to kick in and it does sound as if it may have helped you pull through, though I have zero medical knowledge and defer to my betters. But as a layman it sounds as if it may have helped you.

Until we are all on top of this no one is safe as more variants will develop you may see resistance to the vaccine in one of those variants, so the sooner we can all get vaccinated and the situation more controlled the better.

Hopefully a more Co operative world will come out of this but until then we will just have to hope that one day we can all go back to arguing about bare legs over panty hose ( they BOTH are good, people!)
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Got my first shot. I lucked out. My local Albertsons said they were doing the shots so I walked down and asked to sign up instead of going through the website. They said they had a dose left over cause someone didn't show for their appointment. According to them, once they open a box out of the freezer they have to use the doses in 6 days or they go bad. So, if you do not go to your appointment they may have to toss out a dose. If you go to the website you get sent to where ever they have doses and that could be clear across town.

So try just walking in and asking at your local pharmacy. Could be you luck out.
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tallyho
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Hope you bought a lottery ticket while you were there!
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tallyho wrote:
2 years ago
Hope you bought a lottery ticket while you were there!
Taking the shot IS the lottery ticket.. nyuk nyuk nyuk. :giggle:
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Not seeing it covered much in mainstream news outlets, but then again I don't pay attention to many of them, but have seen several more independent news outlets reporting that vaccine development and aid to places like India is being slowed because big pharma doesn't want to lift/waive patents and other things to allow the vaccine to be made by others. Apparently lots of lobbyists in DC trying to block the Biden Administration's efforts to help out other countries around the world because it will cut into profit margins of big pharma.

Anyways, places here still booked solid, my state and county are the last in the US in vaccine distribution. I believe at the start of it all they sent us 1-2 million doses for 10 million people, lol.
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I am getting my second shot in two weeks. I went shopping today and for the first time since the pandemic those directional arrows are no longer there at the supermarket. It's weird how much joy I got just for not seeing those things anymore, although I do think it was a really smart, practical, responsible, and safe thing to do during this pandemic. I hear a couple folks say it may be nine months to a year before the mask mandates disappear. Fauci said we are in the 6th inning of a baseball game in regards to dealing with COVID (to our friends abroad, an MLB game is nine innings) so by that math it might be another 7 or 8 months of mask mandates. When do you guys think the mask mandates will go away?
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I ve said all along until we all have it under control no one has it under control
India has had 4m new cases in 12 days and that's only the ones they've identified. The more it's out in the world the more the chances of a stronger variant developing. I haven't heard any medical advice as to whether its seasonal or whether the jabs will last or need to be topped up annually.
I can see things lasting a good while longer yet, but vaccination is certainly dropping infection rates in UK and as it will lesson severity the death rates won't be as high as they have been even if the pandemic persists for several years
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tallyho wrote:
2 years ago
I ve said all along until we all have it under control no one has it under control
India has had 4m new cases in 12 days and that's only the ones they've identified. The more it's out in the world the more the chances of a stronger variant developing. I haven't heard any medical advice as to whether its seasonal or whether the jabs will last or need to be topped up annually.
I can see things lasting a good while longer yet, but vaccination is certainly dropping infection rates in UK and as it will lesson severity the death rates won't be as high as they have been even if the pandemic persists for several years
I had no issue or qualms taking the vaccine, and I have followed my state's mandates on masks and I will continue to do so, but I think for a lot of folks out there, they are going to need more personal incentive, a carrot stick, in order to get that vaccine, and I think putting a soft deadline on these mask mandates, getting to a magic number threshold of those vaccinated by state and putting a sunset on the mask mandate might be a sensible way to get there rather than shaming folks who are hesitant or fearful of the side effects. I don't know what that magic number is, but if 6 months from now there are 70-80% of folks fully vaccinated running around with masks on or under our chin, then a lot of folks will conclude "why am I supposed to get a COVID shot when the rest of these vaccinated fools are running around with diapers under their chins, what's the point of that?". I fully expect that I will need another batch of COVID shots next year and I will happily get them, but at some point, just as these directional arrows at these stores are gradually disappearing, these masks ought to go away at least within the next 3-6 months as well. Living in fear ought not to be the new normal and I refuse to live that way.
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I got the second shot on Sunday. Monday, it felt like I had Covid all over again, coughing uncontrollably, chills, fever, bodyaches, weakness. I was on my couch, watching TV and sweating like I was on an eliptical machine. I had to leave work early.

Today was a little better. My shoulder hurt a little worse. The cough isn't as bad. I just hope it doesn't stay with me.
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The problem in India affects other countries, as they are manufacturers of covaxin and covishield (astrazeneca) vaccines and due to this high number of infected people they have stopped exporting. The problem is in South America due to the corruption of the ruling politicians. My country ranks third in the worst management of the pandemic and the worst is Brazil. We are also the second country with the second highest mortality per 100,000 inhabitants, surpassing India.I think everyone in my country will be vaccinated when hell freezes over.
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I just got my first shot of vaccine and holy shit the chills were real. Damn. Never felt anything like it, except when, y'know, actually being somewhere really cold. Only lasted one night thankfully.
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400,000 listed as infected in India yesterday.
Probably nearer 600,000.
BBC news reported 13 funerals in an hour in Modis home constituency. Official figures reported 7 the whole day. Shows how terribly understated the death tolls are there.

In UK 35m had 1 jab, 16m had both. 13 deaths. Running total 127,000 or so dead since crisis started. India could be looking at that as a weekly death toll soon. I feel sick to my stomach watching the news coverage.
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RedMountain wrote:
2 years ago
Not seeing it covered much in mainstream news outlets, but then again I don't pay attention to many of them, but have seen several more independent news outlets reporting that vaccine development and aid to places like India is being slowed because big pharma doesn't want to lift/waive patents and other things to allow the vaccine to be made by others. Apparently lots of lobbyists in DC trying to block the Biden Administration's efforts to help out other countries around the world because it will cut into profit margins of big pharma.

Anyways, places here still booked solid, my state and county are the last in the US in vaccine distribution. I believe at the start of it all they sent us 1-2 million doses for 10 million people, lol.
It is pretty simple for groups like the U.N to demand that the pharmaceuticals give up their patents without compensation. They have done outstanding work on this. But these other countries have to compensate them somehow. Even thought there are some deals being made to allow local manufacturer

Here is a start the U.N drains it's accounts to pay for some, that means every U.N official give up all their pay unless they are on the frontline. Disband all the bogus U.N committees especially the Green ones

The Pope sells all the art work in the Vatican
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Mr. X
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Mask mandate lifted at casinos in Vegas. At least Redrock lifted their mandate. Workers still wear masks but everyone else can opt out.
Dazzle1
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Mask Mandate was lifted Saturday for Massachusetts, it's up to the individual business on their rules.
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tallyho
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R rate in UK well over 1 in most areas and the Indian variant has doubled infections in a week.
With almost 2/3 of pop with one jab and about a fifth with both the gamble is death rates won't be as high as in earlier surges.
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bushwackerbob
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Dazzle1 wrote:
2 years ago
Mask Mandate was lifted Saturday for Massachusetts, it's up to the individual business on their rules.
There are still some places that ask you to wear the mask when you come in, which is fine with me, owners of businesses have the right to run their business as they see fit. I still carry a mask with me just in case the establishment still desires me to wear a mask. I ran some errands today, and what I did was watch fellow shoppers as they entered as to whether they were wearing masks, and if they were wearing them, I put one on. I think it's going to be a general feeling out process in the days and weeks ahead. I really don't want to be that only person in the book store (bought Heller's Catch 22 and Updike's first Rabbit book) or other retail establishment that is not wearing a mask. I got my second shot 2 weeks ago and I had an achy fever/24 hour bug as a side effect from the shot.
Last edited by bushwackerbob 2 years ago, edited 1 time in total.
Dazzle1
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bushwackerbob wrote:
2 years ago
Dazzle1 wrote:
2 years ago
Mask Mandate was lifted Saturday for Massachusetts, it's up to the individual business on their rules.
There are still some places that ask you to wear the mask when you come in, which is fine with me, owners of businesses have the right to run their business as they see fit. I still carry a mask with me just in case the establishment still desires me to wear a mask. I ran some errands today, and what I did was watch fellow shoppers as they entered as to whether they were wearing masks, and if they were wearing them, I put one on. I think it's going to be a general feeling out process in the days and weeks ahead. I really don't want to be that only person in the book store (bought Heller's Catch 22 and Updike's first Rabbit book) or other retail establishment that is not wearing a mask. I got my second shot 2 weeks ago and I had an achy fever/24 bug as a side effect from the shot.
I have the mask with me as well. The supermarket workers are not wearing theirs.
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DrDominator9
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Touring in the U.S.South and almost no masks at all, indoors and out, except the service workers in the shops, hotel desks and wait staff.
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RedMountain
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Finally found a CVS out in the sticks that is taking appointments. Going to go get the jab on Friday, going with the J&J since it's supposedly more resilient to the newer strains, and is a one time. Having some friends(already vaccinated) coming in town in a couple weeks and looking forward to being able to hang out in somewhat normal fashion since I haven't seen them since before all this started a year+ ago.
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